Election Arithmetics of Navyandhra

Andhra Jockey’s might be thinking that they can manipulate people opinion by creating hype and artificial consent manufacturing. But history proved otherwise many times. Cooked and baked surveys by beneficiaries of TDP rule may boast a colourful picture for that party again and again. The number one newspaper couldnot saved Chandrababu publishing half baked surveys by then election expert GVL in 2004 elections.

The same media combine could not stop YSR second ‘win’nings in 2009. Media can give a little boost to party machinery. But ultimate strength of any victory is original confidence one created among the people. If at once trend sets in nothing can stop the change. Media boosts will be wiped out with a force of storms.

Here is the arithmetic

TDP is losing its ground very fast. Its visible. Media houses internal assesments also indicating the same trend. But they want otherwise. Hence these cooked up surveys. Their aim is to stop political migration towards YCP, and giving some hope to TDP cadres. TDP is in worst situation when compared to 2014. Then it was seen as Samaikyandhra champion. BJP and Pawan Kalyan supported him with open mind. Congress was in shambles. YCP was unorganised and immature.

Inspite of all the support TDP-BJP combine could get 46.69 percent votes and YCP 45 percent, which translates intovotes difference of 6,01,539. TDP-BJP polled 1,35,48,599 votes against the YCP’s 1,28,40,033. TDP on its own got 1,29,16,000. Difference between TDP and YCP is less than a lakh votes. YCP fought on its own, where as all the Samaikyandhra forces rallied behind Chandrababu.

Now that picture is blown to pieces. Pawan Kalyan dragged his feet back and resorted to fight against Chandrababu. This time his support base will vote against Chandrababu. Winnability may decide their choice. Chandrababu seems to be number one enemy of Pawan Sena. They feel that CBN ditched them. BJP is contemptuously fighting TDP. They had 8 percent of votes for them in Andhra in most of the elections. One point of the time BJP got 19 percent votes.

They left alliance and working to defeat TDP. CBN inflicted irreparable hurt on some major communities. Muslims and Christians are not with CBN. His anti BJP stunts may not change the muslims mindimmediately. CBN is suffering from trustworthiness. Loss of confidence, lack of consistency and incoherent behaviour and statements doing lot of harm to CBN.

Except Pattiseema Project his contribution to build Navyandhra is a big Zero. Drawing of water from Pattiseema and bringing to Krishna cannot be attributed entirely to CBN. Arrangement of lift and digging a three kilometers canal is CBNs contribution. But more than 200 kilometers canal which is carrying Pattiseema water to Krishna was dug by YSR government itself. By all means TDP is on the losing ground. Now no party is with TDP. According to a pre poll survey expert, ‘It is estimated that TDP lost 10 percent points of votes when compared to 2014 elections’. ‘Media boosts are seen as oxygen support to a struggling patient’ he said.


Author: kattashekar

Editor, Namasthe Telangana Daily, Hyderabad