South has always been a weak point for the BJP and a strong point for the Congress. Even in 1977, when there was an Anti Congress wave in the entire nation, Congress did remarkably well in the states of Andhra Pradesh & Tamil Nadu. In 2004 and 2009, AP gave the highest tally to Congress (29 and 33 seats), helping it to form govt. Back in 1999, the TDP-BJP alliance won a whopping 36/42 seats in the state.
See link below:
Further South, in Tamil Nadu, the state has been a barometer state, for the alliances which won most of the seats of the Dravidian state in 1996, 1998, 1999, 2004 and 2009, went on to form the government. No wonder both AP and TN remain important, not just due to the high number of MPs they count for but also due the fact that these states determine which way the wind is blowing.
Karnataka however is different and seems to give a verdict quite in contrast to the National Poll. In 2004 and 2009, BJP had won the bulk of the seats here. Earlier in 1998 and 1999, it was the Congress which swept the state. Not long ago in October 2013, IBTL had predicted that Congress would win 23 of the 28 seats in the state after a stellar show in the Assembly elections. Has the Congress been able to sustain the momentum? Would Karnataka repeat its tendency of going against the National mood? Kerala with its 20 states has always been a comfort zone for Congress. Even if Congress loses seats, it is the CPM alliance which gains (which could support Congress in the Centre more likely than not).
Statewise Seats Prediction for South India
AP (Seemandhra) – BJP 1 (+1) TDP 12 (+8) YSRC 12 (+12) Congress 0 (-21)
AP (Telangana) – BJP 3 (+3) Congress 5 (-7) TRS 8 (+6) MIM 1 (0) TDP 0 (-2)
Karnataka – JDS 2 (-1) Congress 8 (+2) BJP 17 (-2) AAP 1 (+1)
Kerala – LDF 8 (+4) BJP 1 (+1) Congress 8 (-5) IUML 2 (0) KCM 1 (0)
Tamil Nadu – Congress 0 (-8) BJP 3 (+3) AIADMK 20 (+11), DMK 10 (-8), MDMK 2 (+1) PMK 2 (+2) DMDK 2 (+2)
Pondicherry – Congress 1 (0) NRC 0 (0), PMK 0 (0)
Lakshdweep – Congress 1 (0) BJP 0 (0)
Andaman & Nicobar Islands – BJP 1 (0) Congress 0 (0)
Partywise Summary for South India
Key Findings from South India
In Seemandhra, it is a fierce vattle between TDP and YSRCP while Congress and BJP act as marginal players
In Telangana, the TRS is leading followed by the Congress
Karnataka seems to trash the trend of givinf Anti Mandate and seems to be going with National Mandate this time. Debutant AAP is also expected to win 1 seat in the state
In Kerala, despite anti incumbency, the Left is not gaining as much as expected due to the rise of BJPBJP may win its 1st ever seat in the state
In Tamil Nadu, for the 1st time there is a 3 way fight. BJP has formed a coalition of 7 small parties and seems to be closing on in the gap between the 2 leading Dravida alliance
If the trend continues, NDA led alliance may well upset Jayalalitha’s plan to play a Big role in the government formation at the Centre
High Profile State – Andhra Pradesh
In this section, we would have ideally analyzed Bangalore South where BJP stalwart and 5 time MP is facing Nandan Nilekani of Congress. However the entire state of Andhra Pradesh this time offers much more exciting finds than this 1 seat, therefore this section is dedicated to analyzing Andhra and also stating out the key findings. As far as Bangalore South seat is concerned, our Poll shows Ananth Kumar of the BJP winning the seat for the 6th time, pushing Nandan Nilekani to 2nd.
The bifurcation of Andhra Pradesh has drastically changed the political situation in the largest state of the South. Each side has high wave of emotions riding with them. Formation of 2 more fronts, Jan Sena and the political outfit of ex Andhra CM Kiran Reddy would also play role this time
Many say that TDP supremo N Chandra babu Naidu was the 1st known leader to do a politics of development in a country dominated with caste, region, religion and identity politics. CBN did infact establish the city of Hyderabad in in the world map, but despite that he lost the elections badly in 2004 and then again in 2009. CBN is a good administrator but is he a good Politician?
In his life, Chandra Babu Naidu has never won an election on his own. He took over as the CM of Andhra from NTR in mid 90s. In 1998 TDP could just win 12 out of 42 seats. BJP managed to win 4 seats on its own and grabbed a voteshare of 18%. In 1999 Naidu sensed the opportunity and sensed that an alliance was beneficial to the TDP. The 18% votes of BJP helped TDP win a whopping 29 seats in 1999 aong with the countrywide Vajpayee wave. BJP also settled for a meagre 8 seats and won 7 out of the 8.
Year 2004 – the alliance lost badly because of the farmers’ suicides in Rural Andhra. Separate Telangana sentiment, plight of the farmers, consolidation fo a grand alliance by opposition (INC-TRS-Left) and little focus in rural areas, ensured that TDP was routed
Year 2009 – In a desperate move, TDP allied with TRS and again ended up winning just 6 seats and handing Congress a comfortable victory. TDP stood for United Andhra while TRS stand was well known. The emergence of PRP led by Cheeranjivi also played spoilsport. The BJP was a marginal player in 2009
Year 2014 – This is ‘do or die’ election for TDP. Many surveys have predicted a clean sweep for the YSR Congress however as per our survey, this election is as close as possible. The sentiment is with YSRC, fresh after announcement of bifurcation, but TDP is not lagging far behind. Infact, TDP is also gaining due to its proximity with BJP. There were many voters, particularly in Coastal cities who preferred Modi as PM, but said they would vote for TDP as voting BJP would be wastage. TDP would support BJP after the elections.
In Lok Sabha both TDP and YSRC are predicted to win 12 seats each. However in the Assembly, YSRC is nose ahead of its rival. This is where the Modi wave in Coastal cities and the 4-5% votes could help TDP in getting a decisive lead in the Assembly. The campaigning by Cine star Pawan Kalyan could also help. As of date our prediction for Seemandhra Assembly is
In Telangana however, the story is different. The wave is in favour of Telangana, particularly in the Assembly elections. We did survey close to 500 people in Adilabad, which has a sitting MP of TDP and around 70% said they would vote for TRS in Assembly. Congress was a distant 2nd, BJP 3rd and incumbent TDP a far 4th. This is the plight of a constituency which has a TDP Lok Sabha MP. Imagine how other regions would behave.
There were however a few voters who said they will vote for BJP in Lok Sabha and TRS in Assembly. In lok Sabha we have given 8 seats to TRS, 5 to Congress. However in Assembly this gap widens. TRS is not so strong on ground, but the mere sentiment alone is pushing it to a victory, atleast at this point of time. Our predictions for Telangana Assembly.
TDP would be missing its founder NTR who in surprising move was able to bring BJP and the Left Front under same alliance roof. The party is surely missing the political acumen of its founder. In Narendra Modi, Chandra Babu Naidu has got a Trump card who might have the capability to pull back TDP, by virtue of alliance. In fact Modi is someone who has Naidu’s development image, NTR’s political acumen, MGR’s aura and Sanjay Gandhi’s quick decision making ability and that makes him someone like Sardar Patel.