Arithmetics of Lok Sabha and Telangana Bill


Telangana Bill will win

image
Total Members in Lok Sabha as on 5th February 2014: 533

Simple majority mark : 267

Pledged support for Telangana

A)
Congress : 204-14(Seemandhra members) = 190
BSP : 21
NCP: 9
RLD: 5
CPI : 4
FB: 2
TRS: 2
TDP: 2
JMM: 2
JVM: 2
NC: 2
MIM: 1
NE: 6
Effective strength: 248

B)
CPM and RSP said they will abstain from voting on the Bill. Their combined strength in the house is = 18

* If all 20 anti-T Cong MP’s are suspended, the effective strength is 495 i.e. 248 UPA MP’s constitute a simple majority.

C)
Assured to support for Telangana Bill

JDU: 19
BJD: 14
DMK: 18
AITC: 19
SAD: 4

Total: 74

D)
Expressed neutrality or no stand at all

AIADMK: 9
SP: 22
Total: 31

E)
Expressed clear opposition

Total Seemandhra Congress: 19-9(suspended): 10
Seemandhra TDP : 4 all suspended
YCP : 2 all suspended
ShivSena: 11
Total : 21

F)

BJP: 112

Let us examine the probabilities of out coming situation:

1. If CPM and RSP abstains from voting effective strength of the House will come down to 515. Then the simple majority mark downs to 258. Telangana Bill has clear support of 248 members comprising the parties mentioned in A. Any one party’s support from category C will be enough to get on the Bill. Earlier all these parties gave letters in support of Telangana.

2. Why Seemandhra MPs and TDP Supremo making so much noise knowing the arithmetics of Lok Sabha? Who is behind them? If one can put all the categories C,D,E,F in one basket, which seems to be an impossible task, still it is not going to stall Telangana. Only thing they can do is obstruct the process to the maximum extent.

Advertisements

About kattashekar

Editor, Namasthe Telangana Daily, Hyderabad
This entry was posted in Political Commentary and tagged , , . Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to Arithmetics of Lok Sabha and Telangana Bill

  1. chandu says:

    It seems in rajya saba there is no problem for bill , and no doubt BJP won’t support telangana why you have calculated seemandhra mp’s to 20 rather 25 ?

    Like

  2. Reddy sahib:

    Loksabha speaker named 12 Andhra MP’s (8 Cong + 4 TDP) under rule 374A that results in automatic suspension for the next 5 sittings.

    If Meira Kumar applies the same rule when T-bill is being discussed, the effective strength will come down to around 500 (515-12= 503). Simple majority will then be 252.

    If all 20 anti-T Cong MP’s are suspended, the effective strength is 495 i.e. 248 UPA MP’s constitute a simple majority.

    Like

  3. kattashekar says:

    There few MPs who are in line with High Command.

    Like

  4. Today the situation has changed. NC says it will vote against the bill & 2 T-Cong MP’s suspended.
    The other 15 MP’s suspended are all anti-T (Cong: 9, TDP: 4 & YCP: 2).
    Total strength= 515-17 i.e. 498. Half way mark= 498/2 i.e. 249.
    A=244 (248-NC 2- T-suspended 2). Only 5 MP’s voting or 10 abstaining is enough.

    Like

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s