Telangana Bill will win
Simple majority mark : 267
Pledged support for Telangana
Congress : 204-14(Seemandhra members) = 190
BSP : 21
CPI : 4
Effective strength: 248
CPM and RSP said they will abstain from voting on the Bill. Their combined strength in the house is = 18
* If all 20 anti-T Cong MP’s are suspended, the effective strength is 495 i.e. 248 UPA MP’s constitute a simple majority.
Assured to support for Telangana Bill
Expressed neutrality or no stand at all
Expressed clear opposition
Total Seemandhra Congress: 19-9(suspended): 10
Seemandhra TDP : 4 all suspended
YCP : 2 all suspended
Total : 21
Let us examine the probabilities of out coming situation:
1. If CPM and RSP abstains from voting effective strength of the House will come down to 515. Then the simple majority mark downs to 258. Telangana Bill has clear support of 248 members comprising the parties mentioned in A. Any one party’s support from category C will be enough to get on the Bill. Earlier all these parties gave letters in support of Telangana.
2. Why Seemandhra MPs and TDP Supremo making so much noise knowing the arithmetics of Lok Sabha? Who is behind them? If one can put all the categories C,D,E,F in one basket, which seems to be an impossible task, still it is not going to stall Telangana. Only thing they can do is obstruct the process to the maximum extent.